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　　其??(qi)二??(er)?，懲?(cheng)罰??(fa)性??(xing)關??(guan)稅??(shui)政??(zheng)策??(ce)將??(jiang)導??(dao)致?(zhi)全??(quan)球??(qiu)貿?(mao)易??(yi)成??(cheng)本??(ben)上??(shang)升?(sheng)?，迫??(po)使??(shi)石??(shi)油??(you)貿??(mao)易??(yi)改??(gai)道??(dao)?，進??(jin)一??(yi)步??(bu)加??(jia)劇??(ju)了??(le)國??(guo)際??(ji)油??(you)價??(jia)的??(de)不??(bu)確??(que)定??(ding)性??(xing)??。??美??(mei)國??(guo)對??(dui)進?(jin)口??(kou)鋼??(gang)鐵??(tie)和??(he)鋁??(lv)加??(jia)征??(zheng)關??(guan)稅??(shui)?，增??(zeng)加??(jia)國??(guo)內??(nei)石??(shi)油??(you)開??(kai)采??(cai)和?(he)運?(yun)輸??(shu)的??(de)成??(cheng)本??(ben)?，間??(jian)接??(jie)推??(tui)高??(gao)油??(you)價??(jia)??。同??(tong)時??(shi)?，貿??(mao)易??(yi)摩??(mo)擦??(ca)導??(dao)致??(zhi)的??(de)全??(quan)球??(qiu)經(jīng)?(jing)濟??(ji)放??(fang)緩??(huan)預??(yu)期??(qi)?，又??(you)對??(dui)油??(you)價??(jia)形??(xing)成??(cheng)了??(le)下??(xia)行??(xing)壓??(ya)力??(li)??。這??(zhe)種??(zhong)復??(fu)雜??(za)的?(de)相??(xiang)互?(hu)作??(zuo)用??(yong)使??(shi)得??(de)國??(guo)際??(ji)油??(you)價??(jia)的??(de)波??(bo)動??(dong)更??(geng)加??(jia)難??(nan)以??(yi)預??(yu)測??(ce)??。　　先??(xian)看??(kan)最??(zui)近??(jin)國??(guo)際??(ji)油?(you)價??(jia)的??(de)走??(zou)勢??(shi)??。??一??(yi)方??(fang)面??(mian)是??(shi)油??(you)價??(jia)隨??(sui)著??(zhe)美??(mei)國??(guo)的??(de)關??(guan)稅??(shui)戰(zhàn)??(zhan)威??(wei)脅??(xie)而??(er)劇??(ju)烈??(lie)波??(bo)動??(dong)?，并?(bing)且??(qie)跌??(die)到??(dao)半??(ban)年??(nian)來??(lai)的??(de)最??(zui)低??(di)點??(dian)??。統(tǒng)??(tong)計?(ji)數(shù)??(shu)據(jù)??(ju)表??(biao)明??(ming)?，在??(zai)過??(guo)去??(qu)一??(yi)個??(ge)月??(yue)里??(li)?，國??(guo)際??(ji)油?(you)價??(jia)一??(yi)路??(lu)下??(xia)跌??(die)?，倫??(lun)敦??(dun)布??(bu)倫?(lun)特??(te)原??(yuan)油??(you)期?(qi)貨??(huo)結??(jie)算??(suan)價??(jia)跌??(die)破??(po)70美?(mei)元?(yuan)／桶??(tong)?，盤??(pan)中??(zhong)更??(geng)是??(shi)跌??(die)至??(zhi)3年??(nian)低??(di)點??(dian)68.33美??(mei)元??(yuan)／桶??(tong)??。自??(zi)特??(te)朗??(lang)普??(pu)就??(jiu)職??(zhi)以??(yi)來??(lai)?，國??(guo)際??(ji)油??(you)價??(jia)每??(mei)桶??(tong)平??(ping)均??(jun)價??(jia)格??(ge)已??(yi)經(jīng)??(jing)下??(xia)跌??(die)了??(le)10美??(mei)元??(yuan)之??(zhi)多??(duo)??。。