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　　其?(qi)二??(er)??，懲??(cheng)罰?(fa)性??(xing)關??(guan)稅?(shui)政?(zheng)策??(ce)將??(jiang)導??(dao)致??(zhi)全??(quan)球??(qiu)貿??(mao)易??(yi)成??(cheng)本??(ben)上??(shang)升??(sheng)??，迫?(po)使?(shi)石??(shi)油??(you)貿??(mao)易??(yi)改??(gai)道??(dao)??，進??(jin)一??(yi)步??(bu)加??(jia)劇??(ju)了??(le)國??(guo)際??(ji)油??(you)價??(jia)的??(de)不??(bu)確??(que)定??(ding)性??(xing)??。??美?(mei)國??(guo)對??(dui)進??(jin)口??(kou)鋼??(gang)鐵?(tie)和??(he)鋁??(lv)加??(jia)征??(zheng)關??(guan)稅??(shui)??，增??(zeng)加??(jia)國?(guo)內??(nei)石??(shi)油??(you)開??(kai)采??(cai)和??(he)運??(yun)輸??(shu)的??(de)成??(cheng)本??(ben)??，間??(jian)接??(jie)推??(tui)高??(gao)油??(you)價??(jia)??。同??(tong)時??(shi)??，貿??(mao)易??(yi)摩??(mo)擦??(ca)導??(dao)致??(zhi)的??(de)全??(quan)球??(qiu)經??(jing)濟??(ji)放?(fang)緩??(huan)預??(yu)期??(qi)??，又??(you)對??(dui)油?(you)價?(jia)形??(xing)成??(cheng)了??(le)下??(xia)行??(xing)壓??(ya)力??(li)??。這??(zhe)種??(zhong)復??(fu)雜??(za)的??(de)相?(xiang)互??(hu)作??(zuo)用??(yong)使??(shi)得??(de)國??(guo)際??(ji)油??(you)價??(jia)的??(de)波??(bo)動?(dong)更??(geng)加??(jia)難??(nan)以??(yi)預??(yu)測祝(ce)???！　】??(ke)見?(jian)??，從??(cong)技??(ji)術??(shu)面??(mian)分??(fen)析??(xi)國??(guo)際??(ji)油??(you)價??(jia)短??(duan)期??(qi)走??(zou)勢??(shi)是??(shi)向??(xiang)下??(xia)探??(tan)底??(di)??。??很??(hen)多??(duo)人??(ren)運??(yun)用??(yong)AI技??(ji)術??(shu)模??(mo)型??(xing)也??(ye)得??(de)到??(dao)相??(xiang)同??(tong)的??(de)結??(jie)論??(lun)??，即??(ji)短??(duan)期??(qi)內??(nei)看??(kan)跌??(die)??。一?(yi)些??(xie)重??(zhong)要?(yao)投??(tou)行??(xing)也??(ye)給?(gei)出??(chu)了??(le)油??(you)價??(jia)在??(zai)每??(mei)桶??(tong)60美??(mei)元??(yuan)至??(zhi)80美??(mei)元??(yuan)之??(zhi)間??(jian)波??(bo)動??(dong)的??(de)預??(yu)測??(ce)??。。